Published: August 7, 2026 | Category: Public Markets / Technology
Space Exploration Technologies is testing new lows just as its first flood of insider shares nears the market. The stock closed at $112.55 on Wednesday, down 50% from its June 16 peak of $225.64 and more than $1 trillion below its post-IPO market value.
The slide caps a rout that began weeks after one of the largest IPOs on record. SpaceX priced its June 12 offering at $135 a share, valuing the company at more than $1.7 trillion. Shares jumped 19% on debut day before peaking four days later at $225.64.
The Lockup Calendar
Now the calendar turns against the stock. SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company on August 4. Under lockup terms set in the IPO prospectus, up to 911.5 million insider shares become eligible for sale on August 6 — the second full trading day after the report — worth roughly $103 billion at Wednesday’s price, more than the $85.7 billion the IPO itself raised.
A second, larger release is technically possible: another 455.8 million shares would unlock if SpaceX closes at least 30% above its IPO price on five of the ten trading days heading into the report. The stock trades more than 35% below that bar, making the trigger effectively dead.
Smaller tranches free up roughly every two to three weeks from late August through October, with the standard lockup expiring fully in early December. Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027.
What Analysts Are Saying
Nicolas Owens, an analyst at Morningstar, expects most of the newly unlocked stock to hit the market: “We believe that most of the available shares will come to market, because the existing sellers have low cost basis and long holding periods.” He adds the slide may already reflect the coming supply: “It’s conceivable that a good deal of the recent slump in SpaceX stock is precisely in anticipation of the dilution from the lockup.”
The business itself has held up better than the stock. Starship completed a successful launch on July 24, and the median analyst price target sits near $242 — more than double Wednesday’s close.
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| IPO price (June 12) | $135/share |
| Peak price (June 16) | $225.64/share |
| Recent close (Wednesday) | $112.55/share (−50% from peak) |
| Post-IPO market cap (peak) | >$1.7 trillion |
| Market cap erased from peak | >$1 trillion |
| First lockup release (Aug 6) | Up to 911.5M shares (~$103bn at current price) |
| IPO total proceeds | $85.7 billion |
| Second lockup trigger | 30% above IPO price (effectively dead) |
| Musk shares locked until | June 2027 |
| Median analyst price target | ~$242/share |